The Rouhani Era

　　Iran’s new president promises to lift struggling economy and improve ties with the outside world

　　Tehran bid farewell to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad with the swearing in of new Iranian President Hassan Rouhani on August 4. Rouhani defeated five rivals in an election campaign bearing the slogan “moderation and wisdom，” capturing the expectations of Iranian people that he could change the country’s deteriorating economic climate as well as its relationships with the outside world.

　　However， observers claimed that Rouhani’s ability to alter Iran’s course is limited， as the current economic climate in Iran is mainly caused by Western sanctions and that it is impossible for Iran to change its position on the nuclear issue. Though the new Iranian president is believed to be more moderate in dealing with Western countries， fundamental changes are unlikely to be achieved between Iran and the West.

　　Pressing task

　　Rouhani has inherited from his predecessor a country mired in economic depression and diplomatic dilemmas. The sluggish economy， in particular， has severely affected the livelihood of the Iranian people.

　　Iran is under substantive political and economic sanctions from the United States and its Western allies due to its controversial nuclear program. The West suspects that Iran’s nuclear activities may have military motives while the latter emphasizes its civilian purposes. The sanctions have pushed Iran’s inflation rate to more than 30 percent， the unemployment rate has risen to around 20 percent and the country is losing tens of billions of dollars in oil revenues every year.

　　Many ordinary Iranian people hope that the new president will be able to boost the economy after taking office and raise living standards. If the issue boils down to producing nuclear weapons versus putting bread on the table， ordinary people say they prefer the latter.

　　Rouhani said during his inauguration ceremony that he will rescue the country’s economy， deal with the economic hardships of the people and fight poverty. However， the key to solving the current economic difficulties is easing the Western sanctions.

　　“For Iran’s current economic difficulties of Iran， any small adjustment or amendment is of little help，” said Wang Feng， Deputy Director of the International Relations Department of the Institute of West-Asian and African Studies under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

　　“To change the situation， we should see how the new Iranian president improves relations with the West，” Wang told Beijing Review.

　　As a moderate conservative， Rouhani has pledged to save the struggling economy by improving relations with the international community. During his inauguration， Rouhani admitted Western sanctions have put pressure on the economy and exacted a heavy toll on the country’s people.

　　In the meantime， the new president said Iran would continue to safeguard its own independence and dignity. He stressed the West should engage in dialogue with Iran on a basis of “equal footing” and “mutual respect.”

　　Core problem

　　The improvement of Iran’s economy rests with the lifting of Western sanctions. To do so， Rouhani will have to at least break the deadlock surrounding the nuclear talks with five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany. The world powers and the Islamic republic have conducted several rounds of talks concerning the country’s sensitive nuclear program， but no agreement has been reached.

　　Hua Liming， Former Chinese Ambassador to Iran， said that whether the sanctions on Tehran are lifted or not depends on the progress of the Iranian nuclear negotiations， which in turn depends on the attitude of the United States.

　　Rouhani， who has served as Iran’s former chief nuclear negotiator from 2003 to 2005， was considered a shrewd and pragmatic negotiator over the country’s nuclear issue with the West. During his term as Iran’s top nuclear negotiator in 2003， Iran agreed to suspend its controversial enrichment of uranium. Criticized by some conservative hardliners as a compromising diplomat， Rouhani insisted that “we must have our nuclear program， but not at the cost of great suffering.”

　　Two days after he was sworn in， Rouhani said to reporters that “we are ready to enter negotiations [with the world powers] seriously and without losing time，” insisting that he will not negotiate on what he referred to as “the nuclear rights” of his nation.

　　After the inauguration of the new president， Washington reached out to Tehran. White House spokesman Jay Carney said in a statement that， “Should this new government choose to engage substantively and seriously to meet its international obligations and find a peaceful solution to [Iran’s nuclear program]， it will find a willing partner in the United States.”

　　However， it seems the United States is playing a double-sided game. Just days before Rouhani’s entry into office， the U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill imposing fresh sanctions on Iran’s energy sector and put Iran’s new presidency into a further quandary.

　　Although Rouhani said in his inauguration speech that dialogue is the proper way to settle the issues between Iran and the West， he stressed Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear power and nuclear enrichment.

　　Wang said it is unlikely any big breakthroughs on the nuclear issue will be made in the short run. “The nuclear program concerns the security of the current Iranian regime， to which the United States is very hostile.”

　　Many observers， including Hua， believe that Iran’s supreme leader has the final say in formulating the country’s foreign policy and its pursuit of nuclear power.

　　Though Rouhani describes his policy as moderate and pragmatic， and could bring certain changes to Tehran’s relations with Washington， the fundamental stance of Iran’s foreign policy will change little， said Hua.

　　More open to the outside

　　For the first time in the history of the Islamic republic since 1979， representatives including state leaders from about 55 countries were invited to attend the inauguration ceremony of Iran’s newly elected president.

　　Iran’s gesture aimed to show the world both the internal solidarity of the country and its openness to the outside， noted Hua.

　　In his inaugural speech， Rouhani alluded to Iran’s problematic relations with the West and spoke of building mutual trust. “Transparency is the key to opening a new chapter in mutual trust，” said the new president. “And the transparency we are talking about cannot be one-way，” he added.

　　Wang noted that， unlike his predecessor Ahmadinejad， the new president would adopt a slightly moderate attitude toward Israel.

　　“The tough talk of former Iranian President Ahmadinejad over Israel aimed to draw support from the Islamic world， but actually failed to bring Iran any practical benefits. Rouhani seems to take a comparably moderate stance toward Israel，” Wang said.

　　Indeed， Rouhani has been openly critical of the outgoing president， saying President Ahmadinejad’s “careless， uncalculated and unstudied remarks” have cost the country dearly.

　　Both Wang and Hua also believe that China and Iran would keep a stable and friendly relationship under the administration of the new Iranian president.

　　“China is committed to developing a friendly relationship and conducting mutually beneficial cooperation with all countries，” said Wang. “President Rouhani is very pragmatic； he will undoubtedly continue to develop good relations with China.”

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