Feeding the Future

　　New challenges in ensuring food security require new solutions

　　At the annual Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC)， which was held in Beijing on December 10-13， China’s leadership mapped out plans for the country’s economic work in 2014， listing national food security as a top priority.

　　“The country is facing the twin pressures of a decrease in arable land and growing food imports. The formulation of a new food security strategy is crucial，” said Dang Guoying， Director of the Office of Macroeconomic Research of the Rural Development Institute under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).

　　A statement issued after the meeting suggested that a national food security strategy based on strong domestic supply and moderate imports should be followed. Such a strategy will ensure China’s production capacity while endorsing science and technology， according to the document， which also added that the country must focus on both the quality and quantity of agricultural products， the safety of foodstuffs， as well as supervision over production and the entire sales process.

　　“Ensuring there are sufficient supplies of safe and nutritious food is an important part of our national security strategy，” said Li Wei， Director of the Development Research Center of the State Council， China’s cabinet.

　　According to him， the three major economic security concerns of today’s world are food， energy and finance. “The new national food security strategy introduced by the CEWC is a timely response to the international trend，” Li said.

　　Domestic supplies

　　Strong domestic supply has always been stressed by the Chinese leadership as the best guarantee of food security. This year’s CEWC reiterated the principle， but， for the first time， it specified that the country should achieve basic self-sufficiency for major grains while also guaranteeing the necessary quality and quantity of provisions.

　　According to the Medium- and Long-term Plan for National Food Security (2008-20) issued in 2008， the country should work to maintain a self-sufficiency rate of 95 percent.

　　In 2013， China’s grain production hit 601.94 million tons， up 2.1 percent from 2012 and the 10th consecutive year of growth， according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics last November.

　　“However， with increasing food imports， the hope for security brought by increasing grain yield has been dissolved，” said Zhang Yuanhong， another researcher with the CASS’ Rural Development Institute.

　　The General Administration of Customs reported that China’s net imports of wheat， rice and corn amounted to 19 million tons in 2012. The number exceeded 11.43 million tons in the first seven months of last year. China is also likely to overtake Egypt to become the world’s largest wheat importer in 2013. The National Grain and Oils Information Center predicted that the country’s total imports of wheat would reach 6.5 million tons last year， compared to 3.68 million tons in 2012.

　　“The 95-percent red line necessary for food self-sufficiency has been crossed，” Zhang warned. According to him， in 2012， China imported around 12 percent of the food it consumed.

　　Zhang believes that the fast-growing import of soybeans in particular has greatly contributed to the country’s rising food imports.

　　As reported by Xinhua News Agency， China signed deals to import 26 million tons of soybeans from the United States between September 2013 and August 2014. By the end of last year， 12 million tons had already been shipped to China.

　　“The new idea put forward at this year’s CEWC provides a solution to the pressure of rising food imports， especially imports of soybeans，” said Hong Tao， a professor at the School of Economics of Beijing Technology and Business University.

　　According to him， food security is a general concept， including security for grains， beans and tuber crops. “Grains include rice， wheat and corn， while ’provisions’ mainly refers to rice and wheat. According to the definition of the CEWC， maintaining self-sufficiency for rice， wheat and corn is enough，” Hong said.

　　Zheng Fengtian， a professor at the School of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development of Beijing-based Renmin University of China， also welcomed with the CEWC decisions. “It makes the definition of food security more precise and scientific，” Zheng said， adding that the removal of soybeans from the 95-percent range of self-sufficiency will allow for greater space for the government to focus on guaranteeing self-sufficiency for major grains.

　　Han Jun， Deputy Director of the Development Research Center of the State Council， suggests that the Central Government could set different targets for provisions and overall food supplies.

　　“Provision security should be set as a core target to guarantee 100-percent self-sufficiency for rice and wheat， while the self-sufficiency rate for grain crops as a whole should be over 90 percent，” Han said. “The target is to keep overall food self-sufficiency rate over 80 percent.”

　　Hong believes that China’s national food security will be assured as long as it can maintain more than 95 percent self-sufficiency for provisions， 65 percent for oils and 30 percent for soybeans.

　　To maintain stable grain production， the Chinese Government has set a target to conserve a minimum 120 million hectares of arable land， about 13 percent of the country’s total land area.

　　However， according to official data， China’s arable land has shrunk to about 121 million hectares， meaning the per-capita availability of arable land is less than 0.1 hectares.

　　According to UN standards， if per-capita availability of arable land falls below 0.05 hectares， this is to be considered a crisis. Currently， the measurements in more than 600 of China’s 2，000 counties fail to meet this limit.

　　“We have no space to withdraw further，” said Zhang Xiaoshan， a researcher with the CASS’ Rural Development Institute.

　　Sustainability

　　Facing the harsh reality of today’s situation， this year’s CEWC pledged to further increase the country’s agriculture output in a sustainable way by changing the development mode. To do this， there will be a focus on improving the construction of agricultural infrastructure and faster development of agriculturally applicable science.

　　In the past， the government considered raising the grain yield as a way to ease food security pressure. However， this method isn’t sustainable and a great deal of farmland for various crops has already reached its maximum possible output， according to a study released by the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences in September last year.

　　“This led to many chronic problems like land and water pollution from excessive use of pesticides and fertilizers，” said Li Guoxiang， Deputy Director of the CASS’ Rural Development Institute.

　　According to a Xinhua report， the amount of fertilizers used during agricultural production in China averages at 480kg per hectare of land， 4.1 times of the global average， but the actual utility rate is only 30 percent. Excess fertilizer resides in the soil， creating pollution.

　　“In order to solve this problem， we must get rid of outdated development ideas and focus on both the quantity and quality of grain production，” Li said.

　　Xu Xiaoqing， a researcher with the Research Department of the Rural Economy under the Development Research Center of the State Council， said that the aim of pushing to change agricultural development is to realize the integration of advanced techniques and mechanized production， and improve the utility ratio for agricultural resources.

　　According to statistics released by the Chinese Academy of Sciences， China has more than 2.67 million hectares of medium- and low-yield farmland and 667，000 hectares of saline soil.

　　If farming techniques were sufficiently advanced， this farmland could be properly utilized， Xu said.

　　Xu also suggested that the utilization ratios for water and fertilizers could be improved by developing related technologies. “There is a lot of potential because the 50-percent utilization rate for water in China’s agricultural production is much lower than the 70-percent average in developed countries，” Xu added.

　　Pushed by the fast pace of industrialization and urbanization， China’s agricultural and rural development has entered a new era and is facing a number of challenges， including higher production costs and rising demand， according to Li， with the CASS’ Rural Development Institute. “Under such circumstances， China should help family farms to become intensive， specialized， large-scale agricultural operations，” he said.

　　In November last year， the Central Government allocated 805 million yuan ($131.32 million) to boost agricultural industrialization， according to the Ministry of Finance. The investment aims to support new agricultural management systems and the industrialization of competitive products， the ministry stated.

　　Meanwhile， Cheng Biding， Deputy Director of the Regional Economic Association of China， noted the waste caused by poor management.

　　According to a 2011 survey by the State Administration of Grain， Chinese farmers lost 8 percent of their harvests due to poor storage. This equates to about 20 million tons a year or equivalent to the yield of 4.11 million hectares of land.

　　To solve this problem， China is exploring new methods， such as establishing “grain banks，” huge， modern silos to help farmers store their grain.

　　“We can only ensure food security if we successfully manage our harvests in every step of production， processing， transport and storage，” Cheng said.

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