Stock Market： Waiting for a Rally

　　The initiation of deepening reforms following the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China in November 2013 and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) exit from quantitative easing (QE) are almost certain to exert a significant influence on China’s stock market in 2014.

　　While deepening reforms will give a boost to the ongoing transformation of China’s growth model and spark another round of economic expansion， the QE exit has pronounced an end to the feast of cheap money spanning five years， indicating that great changes will take place in the risk preference， flow direction and interest structure of global capital.

　　What is traded in the financial market is credit， as is the case with the banking and stock markets. The question is where such credit comes from. Differentiated by access to credit， the operational mode of a nation’s financial market will determine the prosperity of its stock market.

　　Given the evolution from a planned economy to the current market economy， credit in China’s stock market largely depends on government or implicit guarantees. That results in differences in transaction behavior and cost and profit analysis. For market-oriented credit risks， investors pay the cost and reap profits， but for government-backed credit risks， profits are harvested by investors， and the cost may have to be covered by the public. That’s why market speculations and manipulations are overwhelming and the interests of small and medium-sized investors are pretty vulnerable in China.

　　At the third plenary session， a focus was laid on the predominant role of the market in resource allocation， aiming to promote market-oriented credit relations. The measures relating to initial public offering (IPO) reform and protection of small and medium-sized investors released right after the third plenary session are considered basic systems to re-establish credit relations in the stock market. Nonetheless， it will be an arduous journey. In 2014， China’s stock market will continue proceeding with reforms.

　　On the other side， the impact of QE tapering should not be underestimated. By reiterating that reduced bond purchases will not necessarily result in monetary tightening， the Fed hopes to neutralize the consequences of QE on the global market.

　　In the past five years， asset prices in a few emerging economies have been bloated in many ways， such as currency appreciation， skyrocketing stock prices， real estate bubbles and soaring commodity prices. However， as the era of cheap money comes to an end， these overheated assets will witness sharp drops in price. To name but two， the collapse of gold prices and dramatic currency depreciations in India， Brazil， South Africa， Indonesia and Turkey.

　　As far as China is concerned， the real estate sector is most likely to be the first affected by QE tapering. In most parts of China， housing prices have surged more than 10-fold. The culprits behind speculations are over-expansion of bank credit and social financing， as well as over-leverage.

　　To counter the impact of the QE exit， Chinese regulators have unveiled a bundle of policies to prevent liquidity flowing into the real estate market， such as reorganizing shadow banking， cleaning up local government financing platforms， and restricting the monetary market. In other words， capital will flee the housing market and seek new investment opportunities， most probably in the stock market， so long as reforms are carried out smoothly， the economy picks up momentum and the stock market edges toward stability.

　　In short， deepening reforms and the QE exit will have a positive impact on China’s stock market this year， but their effect on propping up stock prices will take time to become apparent.