Many Mouths to Feed

　　When Lester R. Brown wrote his book Who WillFeed China？ in 1994， he had a good understanding of whata big issue food security in the world’s most populous nationwould become. In his book， the founder of the U.S.-basedWorldwatch Institute warned the world that the combinedeffects of a spiraling population， shrinking cropland and waterscarcity necessitated formulating a global developmentpolicy for the 21st century.

　　Reminding readers that Chinese account for 20 percentof the world’s population， Brown wrote： “In an integratedworld economy， China’s rising food prices will become theworld’s rising food prices. China’s land scarcity will becomeeveryone’s land scarcity. And water scarcity in China willaffect the entire world.”

　　Brown’s warning has thankfully not yet materialized – inChina at least. Twenty years later， the Asian giant has provento the world that it can feed itself – for now.

　　Top priority

　　For years， China has worried about maintaining its foodsecurity. On January 19， the country issued its first governmentpolicy document of this year. The annual document，which is known as the No.1 Central Document， underscoresthe importance of rural reforms， developing modernagriculture and maintaining agriculture as the foundationof the national economy. This is the 11th successive yearChina has focused its top policy document on agriculturaldevelopment.

　　The document puts improving the national food securitysystem on top of the reform agenda for 2014， and for theforeseeable future.

　　“Taking good control of its own bowl is a fundamentalprinciple the government must stick to over a long period oftime，” the document states.

　　An important aspect of China’s bid for food security is itsgoal of food self-sufficiency by relying mainly on domesticgrain supply. Toward this end， the government has mandatedthat a minimum of 1.8 billion mu (120 million hectares) ofarable land be set aside for farming to ensure food security.This mandate is more commonly known as the “red line.”

　　Despite the country’s process of rapid urbanization，which will unavoidably squeeze the area of farmland， Chinais strictly abiding by the red line principle.

　　A grain contradiction

　　“It is natural for the Chinese Government to put so muchfocus on maintaining its food security as China’s grainproduction and consumption structure is facing a dilemma，”said Wei Feng， a financial observer.

　　Thanks to the promotion of agricultural sciences andtechnologies and increased government subsidies， China’sfood production remains stable， with continuous growthin recent years. As of 2013， the country has witnessedgrowth in grain output for 10 successive years， with grainproduction exceeding 600 million tons in 2013. Accordingto statistics released by the Ministry of Land and Resources，China has 135 million hectares of farmland， more than theprevious estimation of 120 million hectares， providing morespace for agricultural development.

　　However， despite the increase of grain production，customs statistics show the other side of the coin. Starting in2004， China has been a net grain importer， and the importskeep increasing year by year. In 2012， China imported morethan 70 million tons of grain， reducing its grain self-sufficiencyrate to below 90 percent， lower than the 95 percentpreset by the government.

　　Increasing grain production

　　“We should admit that food security is still a hidden peril inChina at the current stage. Ensuring food security is alwaysone of the most important tasks， as well as one of the greatestchallenges in China，” Wei said.

　　Though China is now a net grain importer and its grainself-sufficiency rate continues to drop， China’s per-capitashare of grain increased by 70 kg， compared with 20 yearsago， when it was self-sufficient. Statistics show that the percapitagrain consumption in China reached 500 kg per yearin recent years， higher than the world record average.

　　“If everything goes well， the figure will continue to rise inthe coming years，” Wei said. “The key issue is， where will theadded amount of grain come from？”

　　According to Wei， if the added amount of grain comesfrom the international market， China’s grain self-sufficiencyrate will continue to drop to below 80 percent. This percentagemeans the world’s most populated country will losemost of its capacity to control its domestic food price， whichwill instead be influenced primarily by the internationalmarkets and a few international grain giants.

　　“China should avoid such a disaster by further increasingits grain production，” Wei said.

　　Focus on quality

　　Besides emphasizing food sufficiency， the No.1 CentralDocument also focuses on the quality of grains. Accordingto the document， the strictest standards， the most rigidsupervision， the severest punishment and the harshestaccountability system should be adopted to ensure foodsafety. Food security should put equal emphases on grainquantity and quality.

　　“Basically， China has solved the problem of food quantityand is now facing a more urgent problem： the qualityof agricultural products and processed food， which is morerelated to people’s health，” said Zheng Fengtian， Professorof the School of Agricultural Economics and Rural Developmentof Renmin University of China.

　　According to him， the document puts equal emphasison grain quantity and quality in maintaining food security，the greatest difference between it and previousannual documents， which placed more emphasis on grainquantity.

　　“This is the fundamental way to regain people’s confidenceon agricultural products，” Zheng said.

　　For many years， China’s agricultural production hasfaced various threats such as fertilizer and pesticide pollution，which not only endangers grain quality， but alsoseriously pollutes water resources and soil， threatening thecountry’s ecological environment. The cadmium-laced ricescandal in 2013， a result of excessive fertilizer use， greatlydestroyed public confidence in domestically produced rice.

　　“I am very glad to see that the Central Government hasput more responsibility of food safety on local governments，”said Wang Dongyang， Vice President of theInstitute of Food and Nutrition Development of the Ministryof Agriculture. Previously， when food safety problems occurred，individual operators were usually held accountableand penalized.

　　“When local governments take more responsibility， theywill further strengthen supervision on food production andcan better ensure food safety，” Wang said.

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