In Man’s Own Image

　　After building robots to tackle the labor shortage， attention turns to creating machines that can think

　　China’s importance in the global robotics industry is increasing with more companies moving to develop industrial and service robots. Even some property tycoons have begun investing in this fast-growing sector.

　　To address labor shortage and rising wages， China Vanke， the country’s largest property developer by sales， is working with renowned research centers to develop robots that will do everything - from sweeping floors to guarding properties.

　　As Chinese property developers struggle with lackluster sales and tighter margins， Vanke， like many others， is looking toward premium concierge services to attract customers. In the future， the company said， the industry might be staffed with robots to provide services to clients.

　　“We estimate that with today’s growth and the changes in China’s labor supply， at least 30 percent of our jobs will be taken over by robots，” Vanke’s Chairman Wang Shi said.

　　Indeed， eight robot “chefs” already work in the restaurants serving Vanke’s developments. The company plans to open a hotel entirely managed by robots in Shenzhen City in south China’s Guangdong Province in 2017.

　　China’s progress in developing robot technology has seen it rank as the top industrial robot market worldwide. It accounted for a quarter of global robotic sales， according to a report by China Robot Industry Alliance in 2014.

　　Liu Jinchang， a research fellow at the Hi-Tech Research Development Center under the Ministry of Science and Technology， attributes the boom to government policies and investments from various sources.

　　Anthony Neal-Graves， Vice President of the Internet of Things Group at Intel Corp.， expects the market for robots to increase 20 percent annually worldwide. The Asia-Pacific region is estimated to grow 25 percent annually. The bulk of the increase in demand will come from China， Neal-Graves said.

　　From factories to homes

　　Sixteen years ago， the first industrial robot in China went into service in a factory in Foshan， Guangdong， spraying glaze on ceramic bathroom accessories. Since then， robotic applications have expanded from precision manufacturing， such as electronic and automobile parts， to labor-intensive industries， such as textiles and petrochemicals. And the number of uses is expected to grow.

　　“Robots will be employed in more and more sectors， including home appliances， rail transportation and shipbuilding， as more traditional sectors are willing to embrace the new technology in their production，” said Li Shuchong， President of CCID Consulting Co.， a Beijing-based IT consultancy.

　　According to the International Federation of Robotics (IFR)， 56，000 industrial robots were sold in China in 2014， a 54-percent increase over 2013. China produced 12，050 such robots， up 26.2 percent year on year. Global robot trade value has exceeded $9.5 billion， according to IFR statistics. Adding software， auxiliary equipment and application systems， total trade rises to more than $29 billion. As automobile and electronic factories continue to automate， the IFR predicts Chinese factories will employ the most robots by 2017.

　　China’s national institutions and research teams are focusing on artificial intelligence (AI). Many Internet giants， including Baidu Inc.， the developer of the Chinese online search engine Baidu， and e-commerce site JD.com， are developing their own AI technology.

　　Guangdong-based home appliance maker Midea Group started using robots in 2011 to transport compressors， package air conditioners and conduct performance tests. Taiwan-based Foxconn Technology Group， the world’s largest electronics contract manufacturer， has increased its industrial robotics applications and research and development (R&D) in recent years. The company plans to automate 30 percent of production lines in its factories on the Chinese mainland by 2020 and sell its robot Foxbot to other manufacturers.

　　While Midea and Foxconn mainly utilize and develop what’s been called “intelligent industrial robots，” service robots， like the ones Vanke is researching， are being integrated into the daily lives of more and more ordinary people in China despite their limited use.

　　“China has acquired R&D capabilities covering the entire industrial chain of service robots，” said Xu Xiaolian， Secretary General of the Chinese Institute of Electronics. “Robots are rapidly expanding from industrial areas to home services， medical rehabilitation， education and entertainment. With their application expanding， China’s service robots will witness a surge [in popularity].”

　　Robots designed for cleaning， cooking， nursing the elderly and delivering medical treatment have seen a rapid growth in sales， Xu said. Also， they are being developed in other sectors where they can benefit people in their day-to-day lives.

　　Despite the rosy prospects， experts and industry insiders say three barriers stand in the way of China’s long-term development of service robots： high development costs， and a lack of core technologies and brand cultivation.

　　“We have some core technologies， but the cost of using them in mass production is too high， while for some low-cost production plans， the technology is not good enough，” said Chen Xiaoping， a professor of robotics technology at the University of Science and Technology of China in Hefei， Anhui Province. “So， it’s either hi-tech or low cost. You can’t have both. There are no big names in China’s robotic industry on par with their foreign peers.”

　　One solution， Chen said， is for the government to cultivate famous brands by supporting fast-developing firms in their competition against foreign rivals.

　　And the time to act is now with the next three to five years anticipated to be the prime time to develop advanced， multi-functional service robots， rather than affordable models， according to Li Ruifeng， Deputy Director of the Robotics Research Institute at Harbin Institute of Technology in Heilongjiang Province.

　　Li said that although the service robot market is at its infancy， the sector’s global market value will be $46.18 billion by 2017 due to surging demand. The forward-moving national strategy will be to develop intelligent robots.

　　“As a latecomer， China must speed up the development of service robots，” Li said， warning that businesses eyeing the market should have the core technologies and industrial chains ready before investing.

　　Replacing human labor

　　Investors and potential market players see the burgeoning industry as an opportunity， but workers are being replaced.

　　The manufacturing-heavy Pearl River Delta region in Guangdong has the largest influx of migrant workers in the country. But thanks to rising labor costs， a large-scale replacement of human labor with industrial robots is taking place in the manufacturing sector， and local governments are supporting the change with preferential policies and subsidies.

　　Guangdong started encouraging businesses to replace their human workers with robots last year， hoping nearly 2，000 will make the switch by 2017. The provincial government will earmark 943 billion yuan ($148 billion) to improve industrial technologies by 2018.

　　East China’s coastal provinces are also moving fast to replace their workers with robots. Hangzhou， capital of Zhejiang Province， is pushing businesses to replace tedious and strenuous manual labor with automated and intelligent equipment. In 2013 and 2014， the city awarded 76 companies - mainly in equipment manufacturing， food processing and packaging， apparel and textiles - for their achievements in replacing their workers with robots.

　　“Replacing human labor with robots is increasingly popular throughout provinces in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta regions where the manufacturing industry is more developed，” said Shi Jinhao， a senior researcher with the China Electronics Technology Group. “Local governments are offering subsidies so that robots are employed in the production lines of both big and small businesses. Without a doubt， the trend will continue.”

　　Zuo Shiquan， Director of the Equipment Manufacturing Industry Research Institute under the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology， thinks the rise in labor costs is inevitable as China moves from a middle-income nation to a high-income one. But that’s not the only reason for replacing human workers with robots. Robots are able to manufacture products with higher quality and more consistency， Zuo said.

　　Although China uses a large number of robots each year， their number is still far lower than in advanced industrial nations. An IFR report said in China， every 10，000 workers have access to 30 robots， much lower than the world average of 62. South Korea has the highest density of robots in use， with every 10，000 workers using 437 robots in production， nearly 15 times that of China.

　　But more businesses in China are making the move as they upgrade their production lines.

　　“China’s economic transformation and upgrading coincide with the robotic market boom，” said Zuo， predicting China will employ 494，300 robots by 2020， creating a 300-billion-yuan ($46.95 billion) market for robot parts.

　　China needs to develop its AI and make smarter robots if it wants to revolutionize the industry.

　　“Right now， the robots are not smart enough. A robot used for sweeping has the same level of intelligence as a bug，” said Ye Chen， CEO of DFRobot， a Shanghai-based developer and manufacturer of robot products. “In most cases， service robots have only one function and are not smart enough. To solve that problem， certain technological bottlenecks have to be broken.”

　　Experts say the problem is due to constraints in China’s AI development.

　　Smarter robots

　　“Right now， robots are nothing more than automated machines. They don’t have intelligence in the real sense，” said Zhu Pinpin， cofounder of Xiaoi， an indigenous robot brand in China.

　　Zhu admits that Chinese developers have neglected research on robotic intelligence in their long-term focus on robotic movement.

　　Professor Zhao Jie， Director of the Robotics Research Institute at Harbin Institute of Technology， agrees with Zhu， saying the function of robots should be to do people’s jobs， including making and executing decisions to help people achieve their life and production goals.

　　Liu Chenlin， a senior researcher with the Institute of Automation at the Chinese Academy of Sciences， believes the concept of robots will change as technology develops.

　　“Pattern recognition based on deep learning and big data is a major direction. In the future， the integration between pattern recognition and AI will realize multiple functions， including content recognition， adaptive learning， sample learning， multi-modal learning and multiple-task cooperation，” Liu said.

　　The academic and business worlds are working to raise robots’ intelligence levels， according to presentations at a national conference on AI development in July 2015. The goal is to evolve robots from moving freely to listening and speaking freely and ultimately， being able to understand and think.

　　“Our goal is to give robots the ability to think independently，” said Hu Yu， Senior Vice President of iFLYTEK， an AI technology-focused software company in Hefei.

　　According to Professor Chen of the University of Science and Technology of China， the government is playing an important role by increasing R&D investments to increase robot intelligence.

　　“Technologies such as cloud computing and big data are being employed to tackle this bottleneck，” he said.

　　By Tang Yuankai