A Subdued Anniversary

Bilateral relations between China and the Republic of Korea (ROK) have made tremendous progress since the two nations first established official diplomatic ties in 1992. Within 16 years, the relations leapfrogged from being simply cooperative, to comprehensively cooperative, and then a strategic and cooperative partnership. In the past 25 years, China and the ROK have made great achievements in maintaining high-level visits, upgrading economic and trade coop- eration, and deepening people-to-people exchanges.

But due to polemics between the United States and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), China-ROK relations underwent various twists and turns. The deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system, for example, severely damaged the link between China and South Korea. Looking to the future, it remains to be seen whether China and the ROK could achieve a mature and rational diplomatic relation despite a complex inter- national environment.

25 years of relations

China and the ROK are geographically close and culturally alike. The two countries enjoyed frequent exchanges throughout history but have become estranged in mod- ern times due to various reasons. Shortly after the end of the Cold War, China and the ROK ended mutual hostilities, estab- lished diplomatic relations, and ushered in a new stage of their bilateral cooperation. The past 25 years have proved that China- ROK relations have won support from both governments and their citizens. Moreover, developing such exchanges conforms to the common interests of both sides. Bilateral cooperation has scored remarkable achieve- ments in the areas of politics, economy, and people-to-people exchanges.

Politically, there has been an increasing number of high-level visits and a continuous escalation of partnerships. In 1998, China and the ROK established a cooperative part- nership to face the 21st century. In 2003, it was upgraded to a comprehensive coopera- tive partnership. And in 2008, both countries agreed to upgrade their ties into a strategic and cooperative partnership. In July 2014, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Seoul. China and the ROK co-announced that the two countries would pursue the “four part- nerships”, namely partnership for common development; partnership for regional peace; partnership for Asia’s renewal; and partner- ship for world prosperity. The beefi ng up of bilateral relations in a relatively short time can be attributed to joint efforts from the two governments and the results of expand- ing mutual benefits and deepening mutual trust.

Accelerating bilateral economic coop- eration between the two sides serves as the ballast to safeguard bilateral relations. Bilateral trade volume reached $252.58 bil- lion in 2016, 40 times of that in 1992. China is now the largest trading partner, export market and source of imports of the ROK, while the ROK is China’s third largest trad- ing partner. Besides the continually growing trade volume, the two countries also signed a free trade agreement which came into effect in the end of 2015. South Korea has also been actively taking part in the establishment and operation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. With increas- ing economic cooperation as the bedrock, despite setbacks, both countries have shown restraint to avoid further souring of bilateral relations.

The bilateral cooperation in the fields of science, technology, health, sports and tourism has also kept expanding, and people-to-people exchanges have grown increasingly active. This helps consolidate public support for bilateral ties. In 2016, per- sonal exchanges between the two reached 12.96 million trips. In addition, there were about 67,000 ROK students studying in China and 60,000 Chinese students in the ROK, making the two countries the biggest source of overseas students for each other.

National security perceptions

Diplomatic frictions between both countries have occurred sometimes. But major rever- sals of bilateral relations were due to third party factors such as the issue between the U.S. and the DPRK. Though cooperation in the fi elds of politics and economy between China and the ROK has been strengthening, collaboration in terms of security remained a vulnerable part of their ties. Currently, the deployment of THAAD and the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue are the main source of concerns between the two countries. Seoul’s announcement in July 2016 of the deployment of the THAAD system in the Peninsula led to a chill in China-ROK rela- tions. Divergence in opinion, breakdowns in communication, and a lack of trust regard- ing the THAAD system brought deepening negative impacts on China-ROK ties. China saw the missile defense system as a threat to its strategic security, and perceived the ROK as acting as a U.S. puppet while jeopardizing the China-ROK strategic and cooperative relationship.

The deteriorating situation regarding the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue was another factor that adversely affected China-ROK relations. The nuclear issue has kept growing since the first nuclear crisis in 1993. Many theories have been aired as to why the issue has failed to be resolved, some pointing to- ward the U.S.’ responsibility, China’s liability, or the DPRK’s actions. But if we reflect on the past, it is actually a vicious spiral of secu- rity dilemmas between Pyongyang and other concerned parties. The worsening situation has had a negative impact on the security environment of Northeast Asia and has widened the gap between China and the ROK’s policies toward North Korea. As the nuclear issue dragged on, the threat to the ROK’s security strengthened the latter’s alli- ance to the United States.

China has called for concerted efforts and a comprehensive solution to the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue. China believes the path of dialogue and negotiation is more effective than confrontation. But Seoul has considered China’s solution as pro- Pyongyang and has subsequently tied itself to Washington.

Game changer

Compared to the 20th anniversary of China-ROK diplomatic relations, the 25th anniversary seemed subdued. But both gov- ernments and civil societies took practical actions in showing the intention to restore relations. The two countries’ embassies held celebration activities. The leaders of China and the ROK sent out messages of congratu- lations to each other. President Xi told ROK President Moon Jae-in that he attached great importance to China-ROK relationship and would like to work together to consolidate mutual political trust and handle differ- ences properly. Moon said he wished both countries could develop their relationship into a substantive strategic and cooperative partnership and contribute to the peace and development of Northeast Asia and the world. The China-ROK relationship has not bottomed out, but the situation is unlikely to deteriorate.

After Moon came into power, he has tried a series of measures such as conduct- ing “phone call” and “envoy” diplomacy, as well as promoting dialogue to ease ties with China. However, he made no progress on the THAAD issue. It seems that Moon is taking on a dragging-on-and-waiting-for- changes stance over the issue. At the same time, the Moon administration is conduct- ing multilateral diplomacy with major world powers and Southeast Asian countries. The moment Moon is waiting for comes down to three possibilities fi rst, a relaxation of ten- sions on the Korean Peninsula that leads to a delay deployment of the THAAD; second, a deterioration of U.S.-ROK relationship that triggers a halt in the deployment; third, China changes its stance on the THAAD and turns a blind eye to it.

Meanwhile, the improvement of the China-ROK relationship is dependent on cooperation regarding the nuclear issue. China has proposed a “dual-track approach” through which denuclearization of the pen- insula and peace mechanism establishment are packaged together and “suspension for suspension,” which calls on the DPRK to suspend its nuclear and missile activities in exchange for the suspension of large- scale U.S.-ROK military exercises. The “dual- track approach” aims at solving the problem completely and pushes forward with the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, as well as a mechanism to transition toward peace. The “suspension for suspension” plan focuses on getting all sides back to the negotiating table and create necessary con- ditions to resolve the nuclear issue through dialogue. Judging from Moon’s stand on not looking for war on the Korean Peninsula, China and the ROK have common interests in maintaining the peace. It is possible that the two countries could work together to implement the “suspension for suspension” proposal. If China and the ROK could work together on the nuclear issue, it is expected the two can narrow their divergence on the perceptions of national security threats; the prominence of THAAD would decline. Thus, relations between China and ROK are more likely to improve than before.