African perspective

　　There was a lot of interestin South Africa during theplenary session and the bigquestion for many is how thepolicies and the implementationof these policies goingforward will have a long-termimpact on South Africa’s owngrowth trajectory and perhapseven Beijing’s state drivencapital deployment model inAfrica.

　　Dr. Martyn Davies， CEO ofFrontier Advisory， an emergingmarkets research and consultancy，told Chinese CentralTV that the key is how China’smaturing of the economy， theso-called rebalancing of China’sdomestic economy， willultimately impact on Africa.“Perhaps there is a negativeview – the negative view beingthat China’s growth is temperedand is still very robust， butit’s not good from a commoditiesperspective，” said Davies，who added that African economiesrelying on commodityexports to China might sufferas demand for their resourcescools off under China’s slowinggrowth.

　　As China startsto shift toward amore consumerdriven growthmodel and with therebalancing of theChinese economy，Davies said “we areseeing upwards of50 percent of GDPbeing spent onfixed asset investmentin China，”

　　meaning it is an extremely resourceintensive growth modelfor China’s economy and ofcourse that has been verypositive for Africa because ofthe single resource nature ofthe African economies.

　　He said the last 10 to 12years have seen a regrowthcoupling， where China’sresource intensive growthhas underpinned Africa’s owngrowth.

　　“Sub-Saharan growthitself is down 25-30 percentthis year and this is largelybecause of a still robust butrelatively cooling of a Chinadriven commodities supercycle，” said Davies.

　　He said Africa is very interestedto see how these newpolicies announced in Chinaduring the plenary session willstart to impact on China’s fixedasset investment.

　　“Clearly 50 percent of GDPis unsustainable， perhapsmaybe 40 percent is moremanageable in the long term.That will have， or could have，arguably an impact on Africaneconomies that have notdiversified in this last decade，”said Davies.

　　Gerrishon Ikiara， an internationalrelations professorat the University of Nairobi inKenya， told Xinhua that China’sdeepening reforms had a significantinfluence on Africa.

　　“Chinese enterprises havehelped boostAfrican economieswith their technologyand managementexperience，particularly indeveloping a greeneconomy andrealizing inclusivegrowth，” Ikiara said.Egypt’s Chinaexpert MuhammadAbdel-WahabAl-Sakit， a formerArab League Ambassador toChina， echoed Ikiara’s view. Hetold Xinhua China’s “go global”strategy had produced mutualbenefits in many countries，as it facilitated global capitalflow and market competition，bringing consumers worldwidebetter products at lowerprices.

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