The ‘Green’ China Hand

　　The new U.S. ambassador has deep connections but little experience in managing Sino-U.S. relations.

　　On February 21，the day of former U.S. Senator Max Baucus’ swearing in as the country’s new ambassador to China，U.S. President Barack Obama caused a ruckus by meeting with the Dalai Lama，a move that Beijing said caused damage to bilateral relations.

　　Although most Chinese analysts on U.S. studies have a positive view of the senior U.S. politician，the complicated Sino-U.S. relationship may mean that the latest incarnation of his political life will not be an easy one.

　　Analysts claimed that the rich political experience and personal connections of Baucus in the U.S. political circle may help him play a better role in serving as a bridge between Washington and Beijing and promoting Sino-U.S.

　　relations. However，observers also added that without a sufficient level of strategic mutual trust between the two countries，Baucus needs to make the most of his political wisdom.

　　Weaknesses and strengths

　　Compared with former ambassadors Jon Huntsman，who speaks fluent Mandarin Chinese，and Gary Locke，who is of Chinese descent，Baucus has far less association with China. Can this “green hand” ambassador perform well during his term in Beijing？ The questions regarding his inexperience in security issues as well as his age have cast doubts on his capacity for many Chinese.

　　A Chinese micro-blogger on Sina Weibo with a pseudonym posted a message asking if the newly appointed 72-year-old U.S. envoy can bear the severe air pollution in Beijing. Chinese Internet users，mostly young people，have become accustomed to a U.S. ambassador like Locke，whose youthful energy made him a kind of pop-star figure in China.

　　However，diplomacy is not show business. Analysts believe that the new ambassador has his own strong suits in promoting Sino-U.S. relations.

　　“As a six-term senator，Baucus has extensive personal connections in the U.S. political circle. Despite Beijing and Washington’s numerous official exchange and dialogue channels，the personal connections of the ambassador are also very helpful in promoting relations of the two countries，” said Fu Mengzi，Vice President and a senior researcher at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations.

　　It was reported that Baucus has a close relationship with President Obama and Vice President Joe Biden. He also keeps sound relations with his colleagues in the U.S. Senate as the third most senior senator. Thus，it is possible for him to use his influence on Capitol Hill as well as in the Washington political circle to facilitate his China job.

　　Jin Canrong，Associate Dean of the School of International Studies at Renmin University of China，said Baucus’ former work as a lawmaker well-versed in U.S. trade policy as well as chairman of the Senate Finance Committee may help promote Sino-U.S. trade relations.

　　Fu echoed Jin，saying that economic and trade relations are currently the most important part of the Sino-U.S. relationship and promoting economic recovery is the prime task of the Obama administration for the remainder of his presidency. Therefore，Washington needs to handle its economic relations with China duly. Fu said the appointment of Baucus sends a signal that the United States is eager to tap the huge trade and investment opportunities in China.

　　Baucus is known for his role in helping China join the World Trade Organization in 2001. He also lobbied for China’s special U.S. trade status known as “permanent normal trade relations.”

　　“I think the new ambassador can make something positive in promoting the Sino-U.S. economic relationship and coordinating relations between Beijing and Capitol Hill，” Fu said to Beijing Review.

　　Referring to Baucus’ relative lack of China experience，analysts claimed it is not necessarily a shortcoming for an ambassador.

　　Song Guoyou，an associate professor at Shanghai-based Fudan University，said that from another angle，Baucus’ comparative lack of knowledge about China is conducive to the direct control of Sino-U.S. relations by the White House.

　　The duty of the U.S. ambassador is to deliver timely and accurately the information of the two governments to each other based on the U.S. interests，facilitating communication of the two sides and providing valuable advice，said Song.

　　“His relative lack of knowledge on China and security issues will urge him to deliver unvarnished information to the White House，while his personal connections in Washington are helpful for this direct communication，” Song added.

　　Song also claimed that Baucus may be impelled to learn about the country more objectively and explore new ways for rational interaction between China and the United States.

　　No picnic

　　Baucus has traveled to China more than a half dozen times，with an eye for the Beijing Marathon，according to his statements after being nominated. However，the new job as U.S. ambassador in Beijing may be more challenging than the marathon.

　　Jin of Renmin University claimed the prime task of Baucus after arriving in Beijing is to enhance strategic mutual trust.

　　Washington’s overreaction toward China’s establishment of the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone and Obama’s recent meeting with the Dalai Lama demonstrated the insufficiency of mutual trust between the two sides.

　　China’s Foreign Ministry labels the Dalai Lama “a political exile who has long been engaged in anti-China separatist activities under the cloak of religion.”

　　“With the rise of China，the strength of China and the United States is getting closer. Although China has no intention to repel the U.S. presence in Asia，the ascending Chinese influence within the region is worrying to Washington，which leads to the United States’ provoking a competition with China over regional leadership，” said Jin.

　　Jin claimed China’s rapid military modernization also makes Washington nervous. He said that for the United States to maintain its overwhelming military superiority，Washington may put forward a regular military negotiation mechanism during Baucus’ term to urge China to rein in its military growth.

　　In addition，Jin mentioned that the cyber security issue，China’s maritime power strategy as well as China’s economic transformation may all affect the Sino-U.S. relationship—posing immediate tests for the diplomatic wisdom of the U.S. ambassador.

　　The cyber security issue between China and the United States was hyped by U.S. media last year until former contractor for the U.S. National Security Agency Edward Snowden proved that the U.S. intelligence system is the largest force of surveillance in the world. But still，Washington persisted in its accusations of China.

　　“It is common to see the cooperation and competition between established powers and rising powers in human history. The rise of China makes the United States more sensitive； therefore，the Sino-U.S. relationship has entered a complicated new period，testing diplomats and leaders of both sides，” Jin said to Beijing Review.

　　Jin also pointed out that the diversified public opinion now in China also adds difficulties for the development of bilateral relations. “In the past，we often heard different voices from the Capitol Hill when mentioning Sino-U.S. relations，but now we should also pay attention to opinions from China’s cyber space，” said the professor.

　　Jin claimed that in spite of all the frictions and disputes between the two countries，the top leaders of China and the United States have a general agreement on avoiding the pattern in which emerging powers engage in confrontation with established powers.

　　During their historic meeting at a retreat in California last year，Chinese President Xi Jinping and President Obama agreed on the building-up of a new type of major-country relations characterized by mutual respect and win-win cooperation.

　　“China’s leadership pays much attention to relations with major powers，especially the United States. Thus，China has provided a good political environment for Baucus. Next，we will see how the new ambassador uses these favorable conditions to make his own contribution to bilateral relations，” said Jin.

　　By Yu Lintao