Relaxing Birth Control

　　One child or two？ This is the question soon to be pondered by more than 15 million couples across China’smainland. They will become eligible later this year to havetwo children if one of the parents is an only child. The newpopulation policy， issued in November 2013， has alreadyseen the choice given to couples in 22 provincial-levelregions by the end of April this year.

　　The new policy is seen as a move by the Chinese Governmentto loosen birth restriction and rip the one-childlabel off its family planning policy， which has been seenas controversial in some quarters and highly necessary inothers.

　　Reasons and impact

　　Going back to China’s war periods during the 1940s， thehigh infant mortality rate and the absence of a socialwelfare system resulted in an inclination for couples to havemore children， believing this would ensure a support groupto continue the family name and provide for their old age.Many couples had such a philosophy even after war time.The result was a population boom from nearly 600 millionin 1953 to 1 billion in 1982.

　　“Such a rapid growth in population meant increasingdifficulties for food， clothing， transportation， health care，and employment， making it difficult to free the countryfrom poverty and backwardness in the short term，” readan open letter to all Party members issued by the CentralCommittee of the Communist Party of China in 1980 whenthe one-child family-planning policy was adopted by thegovernment.

　　According to Tian Xueyuan， a demographist and majorarchitect of China’s family planning policy， the policy wasdesigned to create a lower birth rate for one generation，ensuring there were fewer parents for the next generation.The time span allocated for the plan was three decades.“After 30 years， the population problem will be eased，and a different policy could be taken then，” noted theopen letter.

　　According to officials statistics， China saw 400 millionless births in the past three decades， saving thenation from a population explosion. But the negativeside of the policy emerged earlier than experts hadestimated.

　　The low birth rate has become a majorproblem in China with an aging population andshrinking labor pool. In 2010， there were 119million Chinese residents older than 65， supportedby 800 million laborers， making the ratioof young to old 8.4：1. But the ratio is estimated to shrink to3：1 in 2035 and 2：1 in 2050. The problem of how to providefor the aged has become a priority for both governmentand families.

　　Another problem emerging from the one-child policyis gender imbalance. Chinese families， particularly those inrural areas， culturally value boys more than girls. When theone-child policy was first launched， many families selectivelyaborted baby girls to save their birth quota for a boy.

　　The Central Government tried to prevent this by easing thepolicy in rural areas since 1980： Rural residents can have asecond child if their first born is a girl. But today， the ratioof men to women in China is still as high as 118 to 100， accordingto the National Bureau of Statistics.

　　Three decades of the family planning policy has alsoimpacted China’s family structure. Born in the early 1980s，the first generation that were brought up in families of a4-2-1 structure - four grandparents and two parents devotingall their attention to one child - received unprecedentedsocial attention and scrutiny. Mass media called them “littleemperors” in reference to their growing up as the center ofattention and selfish behavior.

　　To ease the problems， since 2002， a policy amendmentthat permits married couples to have a second child ifboth of them are only children began implementation inseveral provinces， before being rolled out countrywidein 2011， 31 years after 1980.

　　“But a two-child policy for all couples would beimpossible at this time because of the increase in thenumber of births the new policy would cause， andthe resulting pressure on public service system，” saidWang Pei’an， Vice Minister of the National Healthand Family Planning Commission (NHFPC).

　　“Population control and structure adjustmenthave to coordinate with each other，”said Zhai Zhenwu， a sociology professor withthe Beijing-based Renmin University of Chinaand Vice President of the China Population Association.“Because in the future， China cannot bear the pressure ofa huge population， nor can it stand the quake from a rapidaging society.”

　　Markets， however， were quick to act after the newpopulation policy was announced. During the first quarterof this year， Fujian Province in southeast China saw a 134percent year-on-year increase of imported diapers. Inaddition， many housing and auto companies took a newmarketing focus： homes and vehicles designed for thenew larger family structure.

　　One child or two？

　　Now that there’s an opportunity for some to increase theirfamilies， sentiment varied on whether they would or not.

　　After finding herself eligible， Beijing resident Belle Kim， a32-year-old office worker， was determined to have onemore child. She knows that if she doesn’t have a secondchild， the loneliness of no siblings and pressure to takecare of parents alone will be thrust upon her only child.

　　However， Zuo Wei， a 36-year-old Beijing citizen andfather of a three-year-old， decided that he will have nomore children. The decision was made after a long familymeeting， which included the grandparents. Zuo said that acombination of Beijing’s high living costs， surging housingprices， and limited medical resources are a barrier to havinganother child. He quoted a newspaper statistics thatit costs 2.76 million yuan ($440，000) to raise a child frombirth to college in Beijing.

　　Zuo said raising one child was already exhausting andthe family would rather spend all they have on one， thandivide their resources on two children.

　　A recent survey by NHFPC shows that more than 40percent of eligible couples who are at child-bearing agesaid no to the idea of a second child.

　　Experts also have contradicting views on the populationgoing forward. Ma Xu， the lead researcher of the NHFPC，estimated that an increase in births of up to 2 millionbabies would occur across the country every year.

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