China Gets Its Wings

　　The COMAC C919， China’s first domestically made large passenger plane， is set to launch its maiden flight bythe end of next year， marking a milestone in the country’saviation industry.

　　In time， the plane’s manufacturer， the CommercialAircraft Corp. of China (COMAC)， expects to challenge Boeingand Airbus in the global aviation market.

　　“I have no doubt Chinese leaders want a viable， globalcompetitive aerospace industry. They are a world economicpower...they’ve gone into space； why not aerospace？” ScottHamilton， an aviation expert and Managing Director at consultingfirm Leeham Co.， told ChinAfrica. “To do so， you haveto compete with the Big Dogs.”

　　For everyone involved， the stakes are huge.

　　China’s commercial aviation market is currently thesecond largest in the world， after only the United States.To keep up with surging demand for air travel from China’sexpanding middle class， over the next 20 years Chineseairlines will need to add 6，000 new airplanes， valued at $780billion， according to Boeing. For its part， the Civil AviationAdministration of China (CAAC) plans to establish around80 new Chinese airports by 2020， many in second-tier andinland Chinese cities.

　　All of this means big business for state-owned COMAC，which was established in 2008 under the auspices of theState Council with a mandate to design and manufactureaircraft for the civil sector. COMAC has since focused its effortson two multi-billion dollar projects - the narrow-bodiedC919， a passenger plane capable of seating around 170passengers with a range of up to 5，500 km， and the ARJ21， asmaller， regional jet that can seat around 100 passengers.

　　Development has been turbulent for both programs，however. Despite first being planned by COMAC’s predecessorin 2005 and taking its first flight in 2008， the ARJ21 is yetto receive certification from either the CAAC or the U.S. FederalAviation Administration (FAA). The company says it haspegged at least 250 orders for the jet from domestic carriersand holding groups and plans for certification to take placelater this year followed closely by commercial service. Still，the perpetual delays and uncertainties have dented theARJ21’s competitiveness.

　　“I’ve always viewed the two programs as learning experiencesfor the emerging Chinese aerospace industry，” Hamiltonsaid， adding that growing pains are inevitable as China’saerospace industry is essentially starting from scratch. “Thenext generation of airplanes will be the ones I view as morecompetitively threatening to Airbus and Boeing.”

　　The C919， the crown jewel of COMAC’s efforts， isdesigned in the same vein as the hugely popular Boeing737 and Airbus A320. Its layout and fabrication are entirelydomestic endeavors， but for now it relies on foreign technologyfor many core parts， including its engine， which is madeby General Electric. There have been about 400 orders forthe C919， with General Electric’s aviation leasing companythe only foreign buyer so far， with an order of 20. Aftertaking its maiden flight sometime in 2015， COMAC expectsC919s to go into service in late 2016 or early 2017.

　　Creating a robust and globally competitive aerospaceindustry is a core goal of the Chinese Government， as highlightedin the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-15).

　　To this end， the government has plowed cash into developingthe industry. Over the next few years， consulting firmKuick Research says the Chinese Government will spend$250 billion to build up the aerospace industry， with $7 billionalready spent on the C919 program alone.

　　Despite the flood of investment from state coffers and asteady stream of orders from domesticcarriers， serious questions remainfor COMAC. A recent report by theresearch group the RAND Corp.

　　blasted the C919 and ARJ21 programsas doomed to failure owing tothe imminent release of new modelsfrom Boeing and Airbus paired withthe Chinese company’s inexperience.Proponents of the program fired backat the report， arguing that Boeing andAirbus both underwent similar strugglesat their starts and that improvementcomes only with time.

　　Assessing what would constitutea success for COMAC and China，Hamilton puts it bluntly.

　　“Benchmarks for success will bea C919 that actually does well economically...and which is reliable. Fromthis， the next generation of airplanescan be pursued.”