A Booming Policy

　　ChinAfrica： Will China face a baby boom after the implementation of the newpolicy？

　　Mu Guangzong： Such possibility is low. Today，most young couples believe the ideal familystructure is to have one or two children. Only afew choose to have none or more than two. Arecent survey conducted by the National Healthand Family Planning Commission shows that50-60 percent of eligible Chinese couples arewilling to have a second child. However， the ratebased on willingness is usually higher than theactual birth rate， as people will take into accountthe financial implications and time constraintsof raising a child when they make their decision.It’s easier for them to express willingness than toface the reality of extremely high cost. Based onthe situation of the families where both couplesare only children [already allowed to have asecond child]， we could speculate that the birthrate of families， where one or both of the couplesare the only children， remains low. Presumably，less than 30 percent of families of one only-childparent will choose to have a second child.There are people who want to have morechildren but cannot afford it， what canhelp improve the situation？

　　Currently， the birth rate in China has fallen to analarmingly low rate. The new policy focuses onencouraging eligible couples to have anotherchild， indicating a shift from the one emphasizingpunishment. As today’s young Chinesewould like to provide better conditions fortheir children， child-raising costs keep rising.

　　Therefore， to ease their concern for a secondchild， related policies for better social servicesshould be available. So I think that familyplanning policy reform must integrateloosening restrictions and guidelines ondecisions for birth， as well as providingquality childbearing service andmaternity care.

　　The year 2002 saw a policy adjustmentthat allowed couplesto have a second child if both ofthem are the only children. Does it suggest China has decided toreform its family planning policy sincethen？

　　As planned in 1980， China’s one-child policywould only work for one generation. So thepolicy in 2002 is a natural and smooth transition，and we cannot say it showed an intention toreform. But the policy of last year， as an adjustmentto the family planning policy， shows thatthe government begins to give more considerationto enhancing risk-resisting ability of Chinesefamilies. The reform has been going on in aprudent manner， in case of a possible populationboom. But I don’t think it’s necessary to beovercautious， because all the birth decisionswill not be made during the same period， andfurthermore， people can be guided for theirreproductive plan. A population boom should notbe feared since population volatility is normal.

　　What impact will the new populationpolicy have on China’s economy？

　　It will have a positive impact. First， itwill stimulate consumption - the newdemand will become the driving force ofthe growth of the infant product industry.

　　Meanwhile， the newly increased population，as an important source of domesticdemand， is a long-term impetus to consumption.

　　Another positive impact is on laborsupply. After 15 to 20 years， the newgeneration will become laborers andcontribute to economic development.Currently， China is facing a shrinkinglabor pool. The year 2012 saw a workingpopulation (from 15 to 59 yearsold) decrease 3.45 million， and in 2013， it furtherdecreased by 2.11 million. The population between15 and 64 year old is estimated to drop from 74.35percent of the total population in 2010 to 60 percentin 2050. The new policy can， to some extent，make up for the shrinking labor pool.

　　With such a large population， how can wecoordinate reproductive equality with thesustainable development of the country？

　　Every human is unique and precious， and 1.34billion people are the most important resources inChina. To strike a balance， market can play a role.

　　The market mechanism can bring the numericalsuperiority of population into full play throughfree and orderly population movements. Withthe innovative system under reform and openingup， increased population will bring about moredemographic dividends， a more reasonable populationstructure， as well as balanced and sustainabledevelopment. Population growth would bringstress and problems only in a planned economy，while with a sound market economic system andinformation environment， it will become a drivingforce.

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